Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back PDF á Resilience:

T change or critical threshold is nearing As well see in the next chapter in an ecosystem like a coral reef certain species behavior can change to prevent a system from flipping into a degraded state In a human context its much the same though when people do it were often supported by an array of tools and technologies that provide us with a greater sense of situational awareness For example the venerable check engine light on your cars dashboard if attended to can be thought of as maintaining the resilience of the engine and hopefully the driver by helping you understand that something is wrong under the hood and encouraging you to uickly get to a mechanic In a muchsophisticated but analogous way were now in the midst of a massive real time instrumentalization of many human systems from health care to business operations and international development Were soaking the world in sensors and the feedback data that these sensors produce is a powerful tool for managing systems performance and amplifying their resilienceparticularly when those data are correlated with data from other such systems The US Geological Society for example is building a tool called the Twitter Earthuake Detector TED that links its seismometers to the social media service When a uake is detected the TED instantly scans for tweets about the location and severity of damage and maps them geographically enabling faster andtargeted disaster response Similarly in sub Saharan Africa health researchers are building powerful predictive models of disease outbreaks by studying migration patterns derived from peoples cell phone usage by studying where they are calling they deduce where they are moving and can assign medical resources to where they will be needed in the future not just where they are needed in the present These same researchers found that they can determine the economic well being of citizens by passively studying the denominations in which they buy airtime for their cell phones Buying airtime in increments is a sign of greater well being than buying airtime in cent increments a sudden downward shift in buying habits may be an early warning sign of an impending economic disruption All of these approaches rest on sorting sifting and combining open real time data from vast sensor networks and using them to create meaningful feedback loops When such sensors suggest a critical threshold is nearing or breached a truly resilient system is able to ensure continuity by dynamically reorganizing both the way in which it serves its purpose and the scale at which it operates Many resilient systems achieve this with embedded countermechanisms which lie dormant until a crisis occurs When that happens they are dispatched like antibodies in the bloodstream to restore the system to health Another way to bolster a systems resilience is to de intensify or decouple the system from its underlying material reuirements or to diversify the resources that can be used to accomplish a given task Under duress some resilient systems may even detach themselves entirely from their larger context localizing their operations and reducing their normal dependencies For example many global companies have awakened to the fact that we are approaching a critical threshold concerning reliable access to water driven by the competing needs of agriculture human consumption and industry Sustainability experts at Nike recently calculated that it takes a whopping gallons of water to produce a single organic cotton T shirt Think about that the next time you stand in front of a wall of three dollar tees at Walmart Its little wonder that they and others in their industry are now aggressively pursuing efforts to develop less water intensive approaches to production and manufacturefor example by using less water to grow cotton and dye textiles Theyre trying to decouple water from apparel to the greatest degree possible This kind of reorganization is made feasible by certain structural features of resilient systems While these systems may appear outwardly complex they often have a simpler internal modular structure with components that plug into one another much like Lego blocks andjust as importantcan unplug from one another when necessary This modularity allows a system to be reconfigured on the fly when disruption strikes prevents failures in one part of the system from cascading through the larger whole and ensures that the system can scale up or scale down when the time is right Herb Simon the polymathic psychologist political scientist economist and computer scientist demonstrated the importance of this kind of modularity with a famous parable about two watchmakers Hora and Tempus Both craftsmen built watches of eual complexity and beauty comprising hundreds of parts Yet Horas business flourished while Tempuss business failed The reason Hora built his watches modularly fitting individual components into hierarchical assemblies that could be snapped together to complete the whole Tempus on the other hand simply built his watches piece by piece until each was completed In Simons parable the watchmakers are occasionally interrupted by a phone call withorders for watches When that happens they must restart the task they were doing prior to the interruption As such Tempus must begin each watch over and over again while much of Horas prior work is preserved And boy does it make a difference If both watchmakers are interrupted just percent of the time Hora will complete watches for every he tries to build Tempus on the other hand will finish just watches for every million To encourage this beneficial modularity many resilient systems are diverse at their edges but simple at their core Think of the DNA in a cell or the communications protocols governing the Internet These specialized languages encode a vast menagerie of inputs and outputs yet as protocols they remain utterly basic evolving slowly if at all The electrical grid for example in effect translates power generated from a number of sourcesfrom nuclear power plants to windmillsinto countless useful forms of work At the center of this vast machine is an unchanging language of currents voltages and electrons The resilience of the overall power system is improved as we expand the diversity of sources that feed it and improve the efficiency of the tasks that we use the resulting electricity for yet the underlying core protocol of the system remains unchanging The converse is also true Like the Mexican food system the resilience of the power system is reduced as we narrow the diversity of sources that feed it This modularity simplicity and interoperability enable the components of many resilient systems to flock or swarm like starlings when the time is right and to break into islands when under duress These are the very features that make things like cloud computing possiblein which groups of linked redundant servers swarm together scaling up and down to complete a given task then disband Similarly coordinated approaches to resilience are found in realms as seemingly disparate as bacteria and the battlefield Yet this kind of modular distributed structure is only part of the story Paradoxically resilience is often also enhanced by the right kind of clusteringbringing resources into close proximity with one another But its a special kind of clustering one whose hallmark is density and diversityof talent resources tools models and ideas Its this kind of clustered diversity that ensures the resilience of innovation hubs like Silicon Valley and the old growth forest alike These principlestight feedback loops dynamic reorganization built in countermechanisms decoupling diversity modularity simplicity swarming and clusteringform a significant part of the tool kit for systemic resilience Taken together they form a powerful vocabulary for evaluating the resilience or fragility of the big systems like cities economies and critical infrastructure that underwrite our contemporary lives Using this toolkit we can ask How can we createeffective feedback loops between our actions and their conseuences How might we decouple ourselves from a scarce underlying resource or make our infrastructuremodular Understanding these principles also suggests resiliences distinction from and relationship to some important related ideas For example though the words are often used interchangeably resilience is not robustness which is typically achieved by hardening the assets of a system The Pyramids of Egypt for example are remarkably robust structures they will persist for many thousands of years to come but knock them over and they wont put themselves back together The same holds true for redundancy which is also a time tested way to improve the ability of a system to persist even when compromised but is also not uite the same thing as resilience Keeping backups of critical components and subsystems is certainly wise on its face as anyone whos been stuck on a lonely road with a flat tire and no spare can attest Highly resilient systems are freuently also highly redundant systems But backups are costly and in good times there can be a great deal of pressure placed on a system to eliminate them to improve efficiency Worse still these backups may become of little or no use when circumstances change dramatically Finally and perhaps most counterintuitively resilience also does not always euate with the recovery of a system to its initial state While some resilient systems may indeed return to a baseline state after a breach or a radical shift in their environment they need not necessarily ever do so In their purest expression resilient systems may have no baseline to return tothey may reconfigure themselves continuously and fluidly to adapt to ever changing circumstances while continuing to fulfill their purpose None of this is to say that resilient systems never fail Regular modest failures are actually essential to many forms of resiliencethey allow a system to release and then reorganize some of its resources Moderate forest fires for example redistribute nutrients and create opportunities for new growth without destroying the system as a whole Paradoxically they do so by ensuring that fire resistant species are not crowded out by nonresistant ones as a healthy forest reaches its peak When human beings intervene in this cyclical process and prevent these necessary smaller fires from happening a forest can build up so much kindling that a small accidental fire can become catastrophic Just ask a Californian More broadly resilient systems fail gracefullythey employ strategies for avoiding dangerous circumstances detecting intrusions minimizing and isolating component damage diversifying the resources they consume operating in a reduced state if necessary and self organizing to heal in the wake of a breach No such system is ever perfect indeed just the opposite A seemingly perfect system is often the most fragile while a dynamic system subject to occasional failure can be the most robust Resilience is like life itself messy imperfect and inefficient But it survives FROM SYSTEMS TO PEOPLE In the latter chapters of this book well turn our attention from the resilience of systems to that of the people and communities who live with them As we do some of the same themes reappear along with some new ones Well start by exploring new insights into the resilience of individual people And here there is good news New scientific research suggests that personal psychic resilience iswidespread improvable and teachable than previously thought Thats because our resilience is rooted not only in our beliefs and values in our character experiences values and genes but critically in our habits of mindhabits we can cultivate and change As we expand our frame to consider the resilience of groups new themes emerge The most important of these is the critical role of trust and cooperationpeoples ability to collaborate when it counts Well look at two cases of cooperation in the midst of a crisis one from Haiti and one from Wall Streetthe former spectacularly successful the latter spectacularly unsuccessfuland explore concrete things we can do to build and harness collaborative systems Also as well see again and again establishing a warm zone of diversity plays an enormous role in resilience and is one of its most important correlates Whether its the biodiversity of a coral reef or in the social context the cognitive diversity of a group increasing the diversity of a systems constituent parts ensures the widest palette of latent ready responses to disruption The trick is to balance such diversity with mechanisms that ensure that these diverse actors can still cooperate with one another when circumstances dictate In our travels wherever we found strong social resilience we also found strong communities And here we dont mean wealthy Resilience is not solely a function of the communitys resources though of course those help nor defined solely by the strength of their formal institutions ditto Instead we found resilient communities freuently relied as much on informal networks rooted in deep trust to contend with and heal disruption Efforts undertaken to impose resilience from above often fail but when those same efforts are embedded authentically in the relationships that mediate peoples everyday lives resilience can flourish Finally when we found a resilient community or organization we almost always also found a very particular species of leader at or near its core Whether old or young male or female these translational leaders play a critical role freuently behind the scenes connecting constituencies and weaving various networks perspectives knowledge systems and agendas into a coherent whole In the process these leaders promote adaptive governancethe ability of a constellation of formal institutions and informal networks to collaborate in response to a crisis These elementsbeliefs values and habits of mind trust and cooperation cognitive diversity strong communities translational leadership and adaptive governancemake up the rich soil in which social resilience grows Taken together they suggest new ways to bolster the resilience of communities and organizations and the people who live within them The concept of resilience is a powerful lens through which we can view major issues afresh from business planning how do we hedge our corporate strategy to deal with unforeseen circumstances to social development how do we improve the resilience of a community at risk to urban planning how do we ensure the continuity of urban services in the face of a disaster to national energy security how do we achieve the right mix of energy sources and infrastructure to contend with inevitable shocks to the system These all affect the one circumstance that matters to each of us our own how do we ensure our personal resilience in the face of lifes inevitable hardships In all of these contexts resilience forces us to take the possibilityeven necessityof failure seriously and to accept the limits of human knowledge and foresight It assumes we dont have all the answers that well be surprised and that well make mistakes And while we advocate for it here as a desirable goal resiliencea property of systemsis not always a virtue in and of itself Terrorists and criminal organizations are also highly resilient often for the same reasons listed above As well see when exploring resilience we often have as much to learn from the bad guys as we do from the good Yet resilience thinking does not simply call us into a defensive crouch against uncertainty and risk Instead by encouraging adaptation agility cooperation connectivity and diversity resilience thinking can bring us to a different way of being in the world and to a deeper engagement with it Bolstering our chances of surviving the next shock is important but its hardly the sole benefit In the discussion that follows there are other recurring principles The first of these is holism In a complex system bolstering the resilience of only one part or level of organization can sometimes unintentionally introduce a fragility in another which in turn can doom the whole Considering the connected whole on the other hand can work to our advantage When we do so efforts we undertake in one part of a system can unlock greater resilience in another The deeper lesson is that to improve resilience we often need to work inthan one mode one domain and one scale at a timewe have to think about the aspects of a system that move bothslowly anduickly than the one we are interested in or examine aspects.

Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back PDF á Resilience:

[Read] ➭ Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back By Andrew Zolli – Elle-kennedy.co Resilience INTRODUCTION THERESILIENCE IMPERATIVE On January the long narrow alleys and wide boulevards of Mexico City were filled with typical early morning sounds children running through open doors[Read] ➭ Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back By Andrew Zolli – Elle-kennedy.co Resilience INTRODUCTION THERESILIENCE IMPERATIVE On January the long narrow alleys and wide boulevards of Mexico City were filled with typical early morning sounds children running through open doors Resilience INTRODUCTION Things Bounce PDF ↠ THERESILIENCE IMPERATIVE On January the long narrow alleys and wide boulevards of Mexico City were Resilience: Why Epub / filled with typical early morning sounds children running through open doors families preparing for the day and street Why Things Bounce PDF/EPUB é vendors cooking up tortillas one of Mexicos main food staples Yet this was to be no ordinary day On this day the price of cornthe main ingredient in tortillaswould hit an all time high of cents a pound a price that would have been unfathomable just a year before Corn was suddenly percentexpensive than it had been just three months earlier With half of all Mexicans living below the poverty line a sudden increase of this magnitude was not just a nuisance it was a potential humanitarian and political crisis As the sun lifted higher in the sky the voices of tens of thousands of citizens farmers and union activists could be heard gathering in one of the citys central suares Above their heads they raised not weapons but ears of corn The tortilla riots as they came to be called echoed throughout the day taking over one of the main downtown streets and challenging the new government of President Felipe Caldern Well into the evening protestors chanted Tortillas s pan no a pun on Calderns National Action Party the PAN which also means bread in Spanishand barked out their suspicions about just who was behind the rise in prices the government big business and the wealthy elite of the country Union leaders and television celebrities railed against corporations for price fixing and chastised the beef and pig ranchers for hoarding their grains While the ranchers and political leaders were natural objects of class indignation they were not this time at least the principal culprits Indeed the protestors could scarcely have guessed the truth The slowly burning fuse that had ignited the explosion in corn prices had been lit several years before and a thousand miles away by a seemingly disconnected eventHurricane Katrina Heres how In Augustthe impending winds of the devastating hurricane had prompted the mass evacuation and shutdown of theoil rigs that dot the Gulf Coast from Texas to Louisiana disrupting almost percent of oil production in the Gulf for several months In the aftermath of the storm the price of gasoline in America surged in some places by as much as cents per gallon in a single day This spike in oil prices made cornthe primary ingredient in the alternative fuel ethanollook relatively cheap by comparison and spurred investment in domestic ethanol production US farmers among the most efficient and most heavily subsidized in the world were encouraged to replace their edible corn crops with inedible varieties suitable for ethanol production Byeven Congress had gotten in on the act mandating a fivefold increase in biofuel productionwiththan percent of it to come from corn Amid the euphoria of this ethanol investment bubble almost no one considered potential impacts on Mexicos peasant farmers who in the decade between the passage of NAFTA and the arrival of Katrina had found themselves thrust into international competition with powerhouse US agribusinesses north of their border American corn growers routinely sold many would argue dumped their product on Mexican markets at almost percent less than it cost to produce it Unable to keep upeven with the support of their own domestic subsidiesmany rural Mexican farmers had switched the variety of corn they grew switched crops altogether or abandoned their farms swelling the ranks of Mexico Citys underclass and further accelerating Mexicos position as a primary market for cheap US varieties As NAFTA took hold this expanding corn import market had also become increasingly dominated by a tiny cliue of powerful transnational corporations mostly headuartered in the United States including Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland along with their Mexican subsidiaries These companies accelerated the transition already at work by doing what dominant incumbents instinctively do concentrating power tightening their control over the market and sueezing out smaller suppliers The result Mexico famous as the place that domesticated the growing of corn ten thousand years ago soon became a net food importerand the third largest of US agricultural productsmuch of it channeled through a tiny constellation of companies It was against this backdrop that in the year that followed Katrina with increasing amounts of the United States domestic supply being diverted to ethanol the price of corn became inextricably coupled to the price of oilnot only because ethanol and oil are comparable fuels but also because it takes an enormous amount of petroleum derived fertilizers to grow corn in the first place As the price of a barrel of petroleum fluctuated the price of a bushel of corn began increasingly to move in lockstep When global speculation drove the cost of a barrel of oil to nearlythe now linked price of corn also skyrocketed provoking what may become an archetypal experience of the twenty first century a food riot We are of course used to these kinds of stories Each week it seems brings some unforeseen disruption blooming amid the thicket of overlapping social political economic technological and environmental systems that govern our lives They arrive at a uickening yet erratic pace usually from unexpected uarters stubbornly resistant to prediction The most severe become cultural touchstones referred to in staccato shorthand Katrina Haiti BP Fukushima The Crash The Great Recession The London mob The Arab Spring Other nameless disruptions swell their ranks amplified by slowly creeping vulnerabilities a midwestern town is undone by economic dislocation a company is obliterated by globalization a way of life is rendered impossible by an ecological shift a debt crisis emerges from political intractability If it feels like the pace of these disruptions is increasing its not just you It took just six months for to become the costliest year on record for natural disasters a fact that insurance companies tie unambiguously to climate change Volatility of all sorts has become the new normal and its here to stay While the details are always different certain features of these disruptions are remarkably consistent whether were discussing the recent global financial crisis the geopolitical outcomes of the war in Ira or the surprising conseuences of a natural disaster One hallmark of such events is that they reveal the dependencies between spheres that areoften studied and discussed in isolation from one another The story of the tortilla riots for example makes visible the linkages between the energy system the oil rigs the ecological system Katrinathe agricultural system the corn harvestthe global trade system NAFTAsocial factors urbanization and povertyand the political systems of both Mexico and the United States We tell such stories to encourage humility in the face of the incomprehensible complexity interconnectivity and volatility of the modern worldone in which upheavals can appear to be triggered by seemingly harmless events arrive with little warning and reveal hidden almost absurd correlations in their wake Like pulling on an errant string in a garment which unravels the whole even as it reveals how the elements were previously woven together we make sense of these stories only in retrospect Even with a deep understanding of the individual systems involved we usually find it difficult to untangle the chain of causation at work And for all of the contributions of the much ballyhooed Information Age just havingdata doesnt automatically help After all if we could actually see each of the individual packets of data pulsing through the Internet or the complex chemical interactions affecting our climate could we make sense of them Could we predict in detail over the long term where those systems are headed or what strange conseuences might be unleashed along the way Even with perfect knowledge one cant escape the nagging suspicion were ballroom dancing in the middle of a minefield So what to do If we cannot control the volatile tides of change we can learn to build better boats We can designand redesignorganizations institutions and systems to better absorb disruption operate under a wider variety of conditions and shiftfluidly from one circumstance to the next To do that we need to understand the emerging field of resilience Around the world in disciplines as seemingly disconnected as economics ecology political science cognitive science and digital networking scientists policymakers technologists corporate leaders and activists alike are asking the same basic uestions What causes one system to break and another to rebound How much change can a system absorb and still retain its integrity and purpose What characteristics make a system adaptive to change In an age of constant disruption how do we build in better shock absorbers for ourselves our communities companies economies societies and the planet Like a developing Polaroid the insights lessons and rules of thumb they are discovering are revealing an entirely new fielda set of generalizable insights for building social economic technical and business systems that anticipate disruption heal themselves when breached and have the ability to reorganize themselves to maintain their core purpose even under radically changed circumstances With this in mind consider how the Mexicans might have been spared their difficulties Larger stockpiled reserves of corndiversified food crops better real time data and better modeling of the impacts of US corn crop diversion might obviously have helped so too might a mechanism to rapidly secure alternative suppliers in a crisis or restructuring the market to dampen the monopolies power or investments in social programs for the poor to mitigate the effects of the price spike Or one might just as readily have intervened in another point in the causal chainsay by diversifying US energy productionso that even a major hurricane wouldnt spur the diversion of corn to ethanol production in the first place The strategies implied in each of these interventionsensuring that there are sufficient reserves available to any given system or diversifying its inputs or collecting better real time data about its operations and performance or enabling greater autonomy for its constituent parts or designing firebreaks so that a disturbance in one part does not disrupt the wholeare at their core strategies of resilience As well see they can be applied at any scale from whole civilizations to communities and organizations to the lives of individual people Defining resilienceprecisely is complicated by the fact that different fields use the term to mean slightly different things In engineering resilience generally refers to the degree to which a structure like a bridge or a building can return to a baseline state after being disturbed In emergency response it suggests the speed with which critical systems can be restored after an earthuake or a flood In ecology it connotes an ecosystems ability to keep from being irrevocably degraded In psychology it signifies the capacity of an individual to deal effectively with trauma In business its often used to mean putting in place backups of data and resources to ensure continuous operation in the face of natural or man made disaster Though different in emphasis each of these definitions rests on one of two essential aspects of resilience continuity and recovery in the face of change Throughout this book we will explore resilience in both systems and people Accordingly we frame resilience in terms borrowed from both ecology and sociology as the capacity of a system enterprise or a person to maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of dramatically changed circumstances To see what we mean lets explore a metaphor used widely in resilience research Imagine for a moment you are overlooking a vast landscape of imaginary hills and valleys stretching out in every direction Like something from a Borges fantasy each valley in this panorama presents a significant variation on your present circumstance an alternative reality with its own uniue characteristics opportunities resources and dangers Each hill in this landscape can be thought of as the critical threshold or boundary separating these worldsonce you pass its peak you will for good or ill inexorably roll into the adjacent existential valley below In some of these new circumstances you may find life uite easy in others you may find things challenging and in a few you may find your new reality so difficult that adaptation is all but impossible As in real life any number of sudden and serious disruptions might cause you to be flipped over the threshold separating your present context and a new one Perhaps you experience a flood or a drought an invasion or an earthuake or perhaps your valley becomes too sparsely populated or too crowded to occupy Perhaps your business encounters an economic or energy shock a technological or competitive shift a sudden shortage of raw materials or the pricing in of environmental factors that were previously unaccounted for Unfortunately many of these thresholds may be crossed only in one direction Once forces have compelled you into a new circumstance it may be impossible for you to return to your prior environment Youll have entered a new normal To improve your resilience is to enhance your ability to resist being pushed from your preferred valley while expanding the range of alternatives that you can embrace if you need to This is what resilience researchers call preserving adaptive capacitythe ability to adapt to changed circumstances while fulfilling ones core purposeand its an essential skill in an age of unforeseeable disruption and volatility There are of course many ways to expand your range of habitable niches You could reduce your material needs in order to subsist inresource poor settings you could learn to use a wider array of resources so you could survive MacGyver like on whatever might be locally available you could invent a new technology liberating yourself from a traditional constraint you could modify tools designed for one niche to suit another or you could learn to collaborate with the local denizens so that you dont have to go it alone As it is for people so it is for systems businesses nations and even the planet as a wholeall can occupy a number of different stable states some vastly preferable to others Planetary boundaries so named by the resilience researcher Johan Rockstrm and his colleagues at the Stockholm Resilience Centre are thresholds that keep the entire biosphere from flipping suddenly and potentially catastrophically into a new state They include factors like the acidification of the oceans the loss of biodiversity human transformation of the land and the availability of clean water Of the nine thresholds Rockstrms team has identified three are currently exceeded another four are approaching their limit Like Russian nesting dolls these planetary boundaries set the limits and context for all human activities from settlement and migration to conflict and commerce and spur the development of new forms of technology and exchange Enhancing the resilience of an ecosystem an economy or a community can be achieved in two ways by improving its ability to resist being pushed past these kinds of critical sometimes permanently damaging thresholds and by preserving and expanding the range of niches to which a system can healthily adapt if it is pushed past such thresholds In principle there are as many ways for a complex system to adapt as there are circumstances for it to adapt to However the dynamics of our present eraincluding the relentless uest for organizational efficiencies the deep stressing of ecological systems and the interconnections that bind us allmove certain approaches to the forefront These patterns themes and strategies appear again and again in large ways and small wherever resilience is found PATTERNS OF RESILIENCE From economies to ecosystems virtually all resilient systems employ tight feedback mechanisms to determine when an abrup.

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Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back PDF á Resilience: Is a Things Bounce PDF ↠ well known author some of his books are a fascination for readers like in the Resilience: Why Epub / Resilience Why Things Bounce Back book this is one of the most wanted Andrew Zolli author readers around Why Things Bounce PDF/EPUB é the world.

resilience kindle things download bounce free back mobile Resilience Why book Things Bounce pdf Why Things Bounce free Resilience Why Things Bounce Back PDFEPUBT change or critical threshold is nearing As well see in the next chapter in an ecosystem like a coral reef certain species behavior can change to prevent a system from flipping into a degraded state In a human context its much the same though when people do it were often supported by an array of tools and technologies that provide us with a greater sense of situational awareness For example the venerable check engine light on your cars dashboard if attended to can be thought of as maintaining the resilience of the engine and hopefully the driver by helping you understand that something is wrong under the hood and encouraging you to uickly get to a mechanic In a muchsophisticated but analogous way were now in the midst of a massive real time instrumentalization of many human systems from health care to business operations and international development Were soaking the world in sensors and the feedback data that these sensors produce is a powerful tool for managing systems performance and amplifying their resilienceparticularly when those data are correlated with data from other such systems The US Geological Society for example is building a tool called the Twitter Earthuake Detector TED that links its seismometers to the social media service When a uake is detected the TED instantly scans for tweets about the location and severity of damage and maps them geographically enabling faster andtargeted disaster response Similarly in sub Saharan Africa health researchers are building powerful predictive models of disease outbreaks by studying migration patterns derived from peoples cell phone usage by studying where they are calling they deduce where they are moving and can assign medical resources to where they will be needed in the future not just where they are needed in the present These same researchers found that they can determine the economic well being of citizens by passively studying the denominations in which they buy airtime for their cell phones Buying airtime in increments is a sign of greater well being than buying airtime in cent increments a sudden downward shift in buying habits may be an early warning sign of an impending economic disruption All of these approaches rest on sorting sifting and combining open real time data from vast sensor networks and using them to create meaningful feedback loops When such sensors suggest a critical threshold is nearing or breached a truly resilient system is able to ensure continuity by dynamically reorganizing both the way in which it serves its purpose and the scale at which it operates Many resilient systems achieve this with embedded countermechanisms which lie dormant until a crisis occurs When that happens they are dispatched like antibodies in the bloodstream to restore the system to health Another way to bolster a systems resilience is to de intensify or decouple the system from its underlying material reuirements or to diversify the resources that can be used to accomplish a given task Under duress some resilient systems may even detach themselves entirely from their larger context localizing their operations and reducing their normal dependencies For example many global companies have awakened to the fact that we are approaching a critical threshold concerning reliable access to water driven by the competing needs of agriculture human consumption and industry Sustainability experts at Nike recently calculated that it takes a whopping gallons of water to produce a single organic cotton T shirt Think about that the next time you stand in front of a wall of three dollar tees at Walmart Its little wonder that they and others in their industry are now aggressively pursuing efforts to develop less water intensive approaches to production and manufacturefor example by using less water to grow cotton and dye textiles Theyre trying to decouple water from apparel to the greatest degree possible This kind of reorganization is made feasible by certain structural features of resilient systems While these systems may appear outwardly complex they often have a simpler internal modular structure with components that plug into one another much like Lego blocks andjust as importantcan unplug from one another when necessary This modularity allows a system to be reconfigured on the fly when disruption strikes prevents failures in one part of the system from cascading through the larger whole and ensures that the system can scale up or scale down when the time is right Herb Simon the polymathic psychologist political scientist economist and computer scientist demonstrated the importance of this kind of modularity with a famous parable about two watchmakers Hora and Tempus Both craftsmen built watches of eual complexity and beauty comprising hundreds of parts Yet Horas business flourished while Tempuss business failed The reason Hora built his watches modularly fitting individual components into hierarchical assemblies that could be snapped together to complete the whole Tempus on the other hand simply built his watches piece by piece until each was completed In Simons parable the watchmakers are occasionally interrupted by a phone call withorders for watches When that happens they must restart the task they were doing prior to the interruption As such Tempus must begin each watch over and over again while much of Horas prior work is preserved And boy does it make a difference If both watchmakers are interrupted just percent of the time Hora will complete watches for every he tries to build Tempus on the other hand will finish just watches for every million To encourage this beneficial modularity many resilient systems are diverse at their edges but simple at their core Think of the DNA in a cell or the communications protocols governing the Internet These specialized languages encode a vast menagerie of inputs and outputs yet as protocols they remain utterly basic evolving slowly if at all The electrical grid for example in effect translates power generated from a number of sourcesfrom nuclear power plants to windmillsinto countless useful forms of work At the center of this vast machine is an unchanging language of currents voltages and electrons The resilience of the overall power system is improved as we expand the diversity of sources that feed it and improve the efficiency of the tasks that we use the resulting electricity for yet the underlying core protocol of the system remains unchanging The converse is also true Like the Mexican food system the resilience of the power system is reduced as we narrow the diversity of sources that feed it This modularity simplicity and interoperability enable the components of many resilient systems to flock or swarm like starlings when the time is right and to break into islands when under duress These are the very features that make things like cloud computing possiblein which groups of linked redundant servers swarm together scaling up and down to complete a given task then disband Similarly coordinated approaches to resilience are found in realms as seemingly disparate as bacteria and the battlefield Yet this kind of modular distributed structure is only part of the story Paradoxically resilience is often also enhanced by the right kind of clusteringbringing resources into close proximity with one another But its a special kind of clustering one whose hallmark is density and diversityof talent resources tools models and ideas Its this kind of clustered diversity that ensures the resilience of innovation hubs like Silicon Valley and the old growth forest alike These principlestight feedback loops dynamic reorganization built in countermechanisms decoupling diversity modularity simplicity swarming and clusteringform a significant part of the tool kit for systemic resilience Taken together they form a powerful vocabulary for evaluating the resilience or fragility of the big systems like cities economies and critical infrastructure that underwrite our contemporary lives Using this toolkit we can ask How can we createeffective feedback loops between our actions and their conseuences How might we decouple ourselves from a scarce underlying resource or make our infrastructuremodular Understanding these principles also suggests resiliences distinction from and relationship to some important related ideas For example though the words are often used interchangeably resilience is not robustness which is typically achieved by hardening the assets of a system The Pyramids of Egypt for example are remarkably robust structures they will persist for many thousands of years to come but knock them over and they wont put themselves back together The same holds true for redundancy which is also a time tested way to improve the ability of a system to persist even when compromised but is also not uite the same thing as resilience Keeping backups of critical components and subsystems is certainly wise on its face as anyone whos been stuck on a lonely road with a flat tire and no spare can attest Highly resilient systems are freuently also highly redundant systems But backups are costly and in good times there can be a great deal of pressure placed on a system to eliminate them to improve efficiency Worse still these backups may become of little or no use when circumstances change dramatically Finally and perhaps most counterintuitively resilience also does not always euate with the recovery of a system to its initial state While some resilient systems may indeed return to a baseline state after a breach or a radical shift in their environment they need not necessarily ever do so In their purest expression resilient systems may have no baseline to return tothey may reconfigure themselves continuously and fluidly to adapt to ever changing circumstances while continuing to fulfill their purpose None of this is to say that resilient systems never fail Regular modest failures are actually essential to many forms of resiliencethey allow a system to release and then reorganize some of its resources Moderate forest fires for example redistribute nutrients and create opportunities for new growth without destroying the system as a whole Paradoxically they do so by ensuring that fire resistant species are not crowded out by nonresistant ones as a healthy forest reaches its peak When human beings intervene in this cyclical process and prevent these necessary smaller fires from happening a forest can build up so much kindling that a small accidental fire can become catastrophic Just ask a Californian More broadly resilient systems fail gracefullythey employ strategies for avoiding dangerous circumstances detecting intrusions minimizing and isolating component damage diversifying the resources they consume operating in a reduced state if necessary and self organizing to heal in the wake of a breach No such system is ever perfect indeed just the opposite A seemingly perfect system is often the most fragile while a dynamic system subject to occasional failure can be the most robust Resilience is like life itself messy imperfect and inefficient But it survives FROM SYSTEMS TO PEOPLE In the latter chapters of this book well turn our attention from the resilience of systems to that of the people and communities who live with them As we do some of the same themes reappear along with some new ones Well start by exploring new insights into the resilience of individual people And here there is good news New scientific research suggests that personal psychic resilience iswidespread improvable and teachable than previously thought Thats because our resilience is rooted not only in our beliefs and values in our character experiences values and genes but critically in our habits of mindhabits we can cultivate and change As we expand our frame to consider the resilience of groups new themes emerge The most important of these is the critical role of trust and cooperationpeoples ability to collaborate when it counts Well look at two cases of cooperation in the midst of a crisis one from Haiti and one from Wall Streetthe former spectacularly successful the latter spectacularly unsuccessfuland explore concrete things we can do to build and harness collaborative systems Also as well see again and again establishing a warm zone of diversity plays an enormous role in resilience and is one of its most important correlates Whether its the biodiversity of a coral reef or in the social context the cognitive diversity of a group increasing the diversity of a systems constituent parts ensures the widest palette of latent ready responses to disruption The trick is to balance such diversity with mechanisms that ensure that these diverse actors can still cooperate with one another when circumstances dictate In our travels wherever we found strong social resilience we also found strong communities And here we dont mean wealthy Resilience is not solely a function of the communitys resources though of course those help nor defined solely by the strength of their formal institutions ditto Instead we found resilient communities freuently relied as much on informal networks rooted in deep trust to contend with and heal disruption Efforts undertaken to impose resilience from above often fail but when those same efforts are embedded authentically in the relationships that mediate peoples everyday lives resilience can flourish Finally when we found a resilient community or organization we almost always also found a very particular species of leader at or near its core Whether old or young male or female these translational leaders play a critical role freuently behind the scenes connecting constituencies and weaving various networks perspectives knowledge systems and agendas into a coherent whole In the process these leaders promote adaptive governancethe ability of a constellation of formal institutions and informal networks to collaborate in response to a crisis These elementsbeliefs values and habits of mind trust and cooperation cognitive diversity strong communities translational leadership and adaptive governancemake up the rich soil in which social resilience grows Taken together they suggest new ways to bolster the resilience of communities and organizations and the people who live within them The concept of resilience is a powerful lens through which we can view major issues afresh from business planning how do we hedge our corporate strategy to deal with unforeseen circumstances to social development how do we improve the resilience of a community at risk to urban planning how do we ensure the continuity of urban services in the face of a disaster to national energy security how do we achieve the right mix of energy sources and infrastructure to contend with inevitable shocks to the system These all affect the one circumstance that matters to each of us our own how do we ensure our personal resilience in the face of lifes inevitable hardships In all of these contexts resilience forces us to take the possibilityeven necessityof failure seriously and to accept the limits of human knowledge and foresight It assumes we dont have all the answers that well be surprised and that well make mistakes And while we advocate for it here as a desirable goal resiliencea property of systemsis not always a virtue in and of itself Terrorists and criminal organizations are also highly resilient often for the same reasons listed above As well see when exploring resilience we often have as much to learn from the bad guys as we do from the good Yet resilience thinking does not simply call us into a defensive crouch against uncertainty and risk Instead by encouraging adaptation agility cooperation connectivity and diversity resilience thinking can bring us to a different way of being in the world and to a deeper engagement with it Bolstering our chances of surviving the next shock is important but its hardly the sole benefit In the discussion that follows there are other recurring principles The first of these is holism In a complex system bolstering the resilience of only one part or level of organization can sometimes unintentionally introduce a fragility in another which in turn can doom the whole Considering the connected whole on the other hand can work to our advantage When we do so efforts we undertake in one part of a system can unlock greater resilience in another The deeper lesson is that to improve resilience we often need to work inthan one mode one domain and one scale at a timewe have to think about the aspects of a system that move bothslowly anduickly than the one we are interested in or examine aspects.

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